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Special report Fed special report · As of 12:45 p.m. ET Nov 5

A December hike would repeat a pattern Bitcoin has lost every time

Bitcoin fell in the month after all seven Fed hikes since 2016 that followed a one-meeting pause, with a median drop of 2.4%. Polymarket and the CME FedWatch tool price an eighth on Dec. 9 at 67.5% and 67.1%, after both fell on Thursday, Nov. 5.

Estefano · 5 Nov 2026 · 22 pages · 20 min read

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